2026 First Base Tiers: Navigating the Nick Kurtz Hype and Veteran Value

The first base landscape for 2026 is a study in friction between bankable volume and the seductive allure of the unknown. In the latest episode of The Sleeper and the Bust, Paul Sporer, Justin Mason, and Joe Arrico dissected the initial tiers of the position, and the takeaway is clear: the industry might be falling into a classic trap with its newest stars while ignoring the profit sitting in plain sight with the veterans.

The Blue-Chip Floor: Guerrero and Alonso

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. remains the gold standard for floor and volume. Coming off a season where he provided nearly 700 plate appearances, his value is tied to a batting average that stabilizes a roster. While the power floor sits comfortably in the mid-twenties, the real debate is how he fits into speed-heavy builds. If you grab a high-steals asset in the first round, Vlad is the perfect anchor in the second.

Pete Alonso’s move to Baltimore provides a fascinating wrinkle. While Camden Yards isn’t the launchpad it once was, Alonso’s power is park-independent. The consensus among the trio is that his durability remains his greatest asset. He is a metronome of production, offering a 35-home run, 100-RBI floor that few others can match, regardless of the change in scenery.

The Nick Kurtz Friction

Perhaps the most polarizing figure in current drafts is Nick Kurtz. After an electric rookie debut, his ADP has skyrocketed into the top 20. However, the analysis here serves as a necessary reality check. Kurtz carries a 31% strikeout rate that was masked by a massive .364 BABIP in 2025.

Investing a first or early second-round pick in a player with only 400 major league at-bats is the definition of 'shiny toy syndrome.' While his ceiling is a 40-homer campaign in Sacramento, the floor is a .230 hitter who doesn't provide the counting stats to justify the cost. As the hosts noted, it is a classic case of process versus results. You can love the player but hate the price tag.

The Golden Nugget: "This is like folding because you didn't want to see your gut shot and then it hits. Technically you were wrong, you would have won the poker hand, but you made the right play. Kurtz has just way too much downside at this price."

Finding Profit in the 'Crusties'

The real strategy for 2026 might be waiting for the veterans. Freddie Freeman, entering his age-36 season, is currently falling to pick 73. While there are minor underlying concerns regarding his zone contact, he remains a cornerstone of the league's best lineup. Getting a piece of the Dodgers’ run production at a 70-pick discount is where championships are won.

Similarly, Matt Olson offers a 162-game guarantee. While he may never repeat the 54-homer outlier of a few years ago, his ability to post every single day provides a level of stability that a high-variance rookie like Kurtz simply cannot offer.

The San Francisco Devers Experiment

Rafael Devers’ first full season in San Francisco is already splitting the analyst community. Joe Arrico remains a firm believer in the elite exit velocity, ranking Devers as the fourth-best first baseman available. On the flip side, Justin Mason points to Devers having the lowest zone-contact rate in the league. At pick 68, you are betting on elite talent overcoming a park that is historically punishing to lefties. If the batting average craters toward .230, the pick becomes a roster-killer.

Ultimately, the 2026 first base strategy boils down to a choice: do you chase the lightning of a sophomore breakout, or do you take the discount on the legends who refuse to fade?