2026 First Base Strategy: Sorting the Anchor Bats from the Decline Phases

The 2026 fantasy baseball draft season is officially in motion, and the initial positional landscape looks significantly different than it did even five years ago. First base is no longer the monolithic haven of pure 40-homer sluggers it once was. Instead, we are looking at a position defined by high-floor average hitters, aging superstars, and a few younger values finally finding their footing. On the latest episode of Flags Fly Forever, Mike Gianella and John Hagelin provided a masterclass in reading the NFBC ADP signal to find where the market is overreacting—and where it is missing the boat.

The Elite Turn: Why Vlad Jr. is the Anchor You Need

One of the most compelling arguments made in the preview centered on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at the one-two turn. While the industry spent years chasing the gargantuan hype of his early career, he has quietly evolved into a more polished, reliable fantasy asset. The consensus is clear: if you can grab him at the turn, you do it. Even if the home run totals settle in the high 20s, his elite batting average and the improved Blue Jays lineup context make him a four-category foundation piece that lacks the volatility of other first-rounders.

In contrast, the outlook on Pete Alonso is more cautious. Moving from the Mets to Baltimore might seem like a lateral move, but the underlying metrics suggest the RBI ceiling might be lower without the on-base machines like Juan Soto hitting directly in front of him. You are likely paying for past production with Alonso, which is rarely a winning strategy in a competitive 2026 environment.

The Battle of the Veterans: Olson vs. Harper

For those looking for value in the early-middle rounds, the Matt Olson versus Bryce Harper debate is the central pivot point.

Matt Olson: After a 2024 season that looked "down" by his lofty standards (despite still hitting 29 home runs), Olson is entering 2026 as a relative bargain. With Ronald Acuna Jr. back and healthy, Olson’s run production upside is immense.
Bryce Harper: The concern here is pure health. The "bag-holding" risk is real as Harper ages. The production is elite when he is on the field, but Mike and John warn that building a roster around 155 games of Harper might be an expensive gamble.
Rafael Devers: Now settled into San Francisco, Devers has successfully navigated the "Oracle Park discount." His late-season surge last year proved he can use the big gaps in the Bay Area to maintain elite production even if the raw home run totals take a slight hit.

Finding Gold in the Middle Tiers

If you decide to wait on the position, the mid-rounds offer two distinct paths: high-floor stability or speculative power.

Josh Naylor remains one of the most fascinating profiles in the game. Despite a sprint speed that is effectively a three on the 1-100 scale, he managed 30 stolen bases last year through pure savvy. While a repeat of that speed is unlikely, his elite contact skills make him a safe bet for a .280 average, a rarity at a position filled with strikeout-heavy profiles.

For a true value play, look toward Spencer Torkelsen. The market has penalized him heavily for a disastrous 2024, but the 30-homer power remains intact. Getting Christian Walker-lite production three rounds later than the veteran's ADP is the kind of move that wins leagues. Speaking of Walker, the signals are flashing red. A declining walk rate and increasing strikeouts suggest the 35-year-old is entering a steep decline phase that smart managers should avoid at his current price.

The Golden Nugget

"The market often pays for what a player did last year, but at first base in 2026, the real wins are found in identifying the hitters who have already adjusted to their new ballparks and the veterans whose underlying plate discipline metrics are starting to fray."

Deep League Gambles and DH Targets

In the later rounds, the discussion shifts to the utility and DH-only spots. Luis Arraez remains the ultimate roster stabilizer for batting average, though his late-signing status and lack of defensive utility make him a risky "empty" asset if he doesn't secure 600 plate appearances. Meanwhile, keep an eye on Bryce Eldridge in San Francisco as a late-round lottery ticket. While he may start the year in the minors, his raw power is the only true offensive ceiling in the Giants' system, making him a prime stash candidate for the second half of the 2026 season.

Listen to Flags Fly Forever Fantasy Baseball: https://podranker.com/podcast/flags-fly-forever-fantasy-baseball